India to add 1 mb/d of refining capacity by 2028: IEA.

India, the world’s fourth largest crude oil refiner, is expected to add one million barrels per day (mb/d) of refining capacity in the next five years.

According to the latest refining capacity numbers by the International Energy Agency (IEA), India will increase its refining capacity from 5.2 mb/d in 2022 to 6.2 mb/d in 2028.

As per the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), India’s cumulative crude oil processing stood at 4.85 mb/d in FY22, which rose to 5.02 mb/d in FY23. During the first two months of FY24, the crude processing stood at 5.31 mb/d.

“Over the medium term, regional growth is underpinned by Indian additions that total one mb/d. The new capacity comes mostly from expansions at existing sites, with only the 180,000 b/d Barmer greenfield project coming online,” IEA said.

The fate of the planned 1.2 mb/d Ratnagiri refinery remains unclear. Land acquisition constraints are the latest roadblock to the project that was first proposed in the middle of the last decade. Even if finally approved, the refinery is not expected to come online in IEA’s forecast period (2022-2028), it added.

According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Indian Oil Corporation’s (IOC) refinery projects are currently underway. The expansion of Panipat refinery to 25 MTPA is expected to be completed by September 2024. The expansion of Gujarat refinery to 18 MTPA and Baruni refinery to nine MTPA are expected to be completed in 2023.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) is also ramping up the existing refinery capacity at Bina (Madhya Pradesh) from 7.8 MTPA to 11 MTPA. Similarly, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) has also undertaken expansion of its refineries at Bhatinda and Vizag as well as the greenfield refinery at Barmer, which are expected to be completed in FY24.

HBL