IPI gas pipeline project been delayed

Karachi: Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, first mooted in 1996, has still not reached the stage, where it could be called a 'done' deal. There are still too many 'ifs' and 'buts' to be straightened out, mainly raised by the Indian side.

Pakistan is all out for it, and has declared its readiness to sign an agreement (even on a 'go-it-alone' basis) whenever Iran gives the signal. However Iran is equivocal about it, keeping Pakistan happy with promises, but with an eye on India and demurring just enough (to a tantalising degree) to entice India to join. Lately, China has shown interest to join if India withdraws.

What are the reasons for this 'on again, off again' situation? Pakistan's position is clear and has no ambiguity. Faced with a severe energy crunch, gas from Iran is the only economically viable proposition at present. The alternatives, gas from Qatar or Turkmenistan, have some in-surmountable difficulties. Qatar gas supply will have to come through under-sea pipes for a long distance, and will be very expensive, which Pakistan cannot afford.

Gas from Turkmenistan has to pass through war-torn Afghanistan, not a very feasible prospect at present. Even otherwise, the supply situation there is dubious. There are serious doubts about the size of their gas reserves, and reliance on that source, on a long-term basis, is open to question. So that leaves just Iran, and Tehran knows it fully well, and is not averse to strike a hard bargain.

Another and more potent argument from Iran's point of view is a prospective participation of India, which would be most lucrative for Iran. Consequently, China's participation can tip the scale. The reason is the size of the pipeline, and its throughput capacity. Pakistan alone means a relatively small diameter pipeline. If India (or China) joins, the quantity to be pumped daily will be huge and require much larger diameter pipes and pumping equipment, telemetering and all other related infrastructure.

Naturally, Iran does not relish the idea of going through the exercise twice, with attendant high costs, and they would prefer to do it once only to save costs and all the bother. Hence, their reluctance to say an immediate 'yes' to Pakistan is comprehensible.

India's case is different. They want to keep their options open while they tinker with other possibilities, like nuclear power promised by a deal with USA. Of course, that prospect is also full of thorns as several influential groups in India are dead against it for various reasons. There is also the matter of transit fees payable to Pakistan, a sore point with penny-pinching Indians.

In this geo-political quagmire, China's participation will be a great boon to all concerned, as the deal can go through with or without India, and no ruffled feathers or brush with USA.

An incoming administration in Pakistan, without any previous commitments, for or against, will, hopefully, not succumb too readily to Washington's brow-beating, and strive to sign the deal, the sooner the better, since Pakistan cannot afford to delay the matter much longer. It is up to Pakistani diplomacy to come up with an answer, the more so because of the security situation in Balochistan, where the proposed pipeline has to pass through.